Originally Published IVD Technology January 2006
INDUSTRY NEWS
Steady growth projected for cancer IVD marketAlthough cancer mortality rates continue to drop due to new, effective therapies and diagnostics and better patient management, an aging world population has led to an increase in incidence of the disease. According to an October 2005 report by Kalorama Information (New York City), The Worldwide Market for Cancer Diagnostics, healthcare providers are focusing more on detecting the disease in its earliest stages, a trend that will help fuel cancer IVD demand during the next four years.
According to Kalorama, cancer diagnostics sales totaled $4.1 billion in 2004. The market is projected to show a healthy 13% annual growth, topping $7.4 billion by 2009 (see Table I). Although there are not expected to be significant market share shifts among the leading test types, new genetic markers and a growing number of targets have helped create fresh opportunities for manufacturers.
In particular, a shift in drug research from traditional cytotoxic chemotherapies to high-specificity immunological and biological approaches has placed more emphasis on the importance of testing. “These new drugs will be more cancer- and patient-specific,” says Kalorama. “As these drugs come to market, in vitro diagnostics will become critical to matching drug to cancer and drug to patient, and then monitoring the drug’s action on the disease.” Although the report sounds a hopeful note about the importance of genetic tests to early cancer detection, it notes that this segment of the market is still developing. Traditional cancer testing methods such as tissue biopsies and serum assays continue to be valuable.
In a 2003 publication, the World Cancer Report, the World Health Organization (WHO; Geneva) concluded that cancer remains a serious global health concern. The WHO study predicted that between 2000 and 2020, cancer rates could increase by 50%, to 15 million new cases a year. Among current patients, the report found that more than half of the world’s cancer cases and deaths now occur in developing countries.
Still, despite the geographical reach of the disease, Kalorama estimates that 85% of cancer IVD sales are concentrated in Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. This discrepancy is due, in part, to the larger healthcare budgets of these countries, but is also the result of the costly battles to fight HIV, as well as infectious and waterborne diseases, in developing nations.
Among developed countries, the cancer IVD market in Japan is forecasted to grow the fastest, at 10–15% a year. This surge stems from cancer surpassing infectious disease as the leading cause of death in Asia. Also beneficial to the Japanese market has been the willingness of many of its labs to adopt higher-priced testing before their foreign counterparts. The United States and the European Union are expected to record annual growth of 5–10%. In the rest-of-world market, sales are anticipated to show little change.
In the postgenomic age, manufacturers have made great breakthroughs in testing. However, as is the case in other diagnostic areas, regulation and reimbursement have lagged behind technological innovation. According to Kalorama, during the next few years, IVD manufacturers will need to prove to healthcare organizations that newer, higher-priced cancer tests are not only safe and accurate but also provide a cost-effective alternative to existing diagnostics. “What does all this mean for cancer diagnostics marketers?” asks Kalorama. “Data, data, and more data accompanied by the inevitable use of data to evaluate the medical usefulness and necessity of using a specific device. Medical device usage will be based on performance data, contribution to patient outcome, and rigorous cost-benefit analysis.”
Additional information about this report can be accessed via the Kalorama Information Web site at www.kaloramainformation.com.
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